Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x253d…0d9f other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$131 (+25%) realized +$128 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$152
sports 23% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +24.9% +13.0% 78% 78% +19.4%
≤30d 9 +24.9% +13.0% 78% 78% +19.4%
≤90d 9 +24.9% +13.0% 78% 78% +19.4%
all 9 +24.9% +13.0% 78% 78% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 78% +19.4%
10% +2.2% 56% +8.0%
15% -7.7% 56% -2.4%
20% -16.7% 44% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$45 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$128
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $60 $64 +$4 (+7%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$12 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$30 -58%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $42 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $34 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $30 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $21 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $30 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 16h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $51 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.48 · official $84.48 (match) · 20 history records