Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2540…6bec sports 222 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$42 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate32%70W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day85.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$180
other 35% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -23.4% -30.7% 32% 17% -12.2%
≤30d 220 -23.4% -30.7% 32% 17% -12.2%
≤90d 220 -23.4% -30.7% 32% 17% -12.2%
all 220 -23.4% -30.7% 32% 17% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.7% 17% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -37.3% 9% -20.6%
15% -43.4% 5% -28.3%
20% -48.9% 3% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.6 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses70 / 150
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)220 / 222
History coverage3d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day85.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots on target Yes 98¢ 76¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals No 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists Jun 25 $8 $0 +4%
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots on target Jun 25 $23 $0 +2%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 25 $98 $0 -0%
Ecuador to win the second half? Jun 25 $58 +$6 +10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $108 −$5 -5%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $44 +$6 +13%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $371 $0 -0%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $155 +$26 +17%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$1 +17%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 +$3 +54%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $297 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $619 +$32 +5%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $297 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $34 −$9 -26%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Second half draw? Jun 25 $12 −$2 -17%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $29 −$25 -89%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$3 -26%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$3 -26%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $55 −$2 -4%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $155 −$30 -19%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $70 −$30 -43%
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals Jun 25 $69 −$12 -17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $188 $0 +0%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 25 $188 $0 +0%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $23 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 +$4 +18%
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 25 $156 $0 -0%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $144 $0 -0%
Mexico to win the second half? Jun 25 $120 +$3 +2%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $468 +$2 +0%
Korea Republic to win the second half? Jun 25 $144 +$38 +27%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $17 +$3 +14%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $140 +$22 +16%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $204 +$31 +15%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 25 $8 +$2 +20%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $211 +$35 +17%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $56 +$7 +12%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $182 −$3 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $275 −$30 -11%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $53 $0 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $20 12m
Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 98¢ $20 12m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $96 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 1¢ $3 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 1¢ $3 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 1¢ $3 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $297 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 98¢ $297 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $291 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3¢ $9 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Ecuador to win the second half? SELL No 17¢ $1 1h
Ecuador to win the second half? SELL No 22¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 4¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $40 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 11¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $288 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 4¢ $12 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $44 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Ecuador to win the second half? SELL No 80¢ $4 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $3 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 55¢ $3 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $5 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.49 · official $15.53 (match) · 1010 history records