Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x2542…c995 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$10 (+33%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +40.9% +27.5% 100% 100% +27.5%
≤30d 1 +40.9% +27.5% 100% 100% +27.5%
≤90d 1 +40.9% +27.5% 100% 100% +27.5%
all 1 +40.9% +27.5% 100% 100% +27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.5% 100% +27.5%
10% +15.3% 100% +15.3%
15% +4.1% 100% +4.1%
20% -6.1% 0% -6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $24 +$10 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $24 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.71 · official $5.71 (match) · 4 history records