trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 54¢ | $60 | $59 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Mar 20 | $32 | −$32 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | Mar 20 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 22 | $10 | −$2 | -23% |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | Feb 22 | $4 | −$1 | -23% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET | Feb 21 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET | Feb 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Feb 20 | $8 | −$3 | -37% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Oct 26 | $44 | −$11 | -26% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | Oct 25 | $101 | −$57 | -56% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Oct 24 | $100 | −$7 | -7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? | Oct 24 | $11 | −$4 | -32% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Oct 23 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 08 | $25 | −$4 | -15% |
| Another Iran strike on Israel in October? | Nov 05 | $27 | −$20 | -74% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 14 | -42.3% | -47.8% | 7% | 0% | -45.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -47.8% | 0% | -45.1% |
| 10% | -52.8% | 0% | -50.3% |
| 15% | -57.4% | 0% | -55.1% |
| 20% | -61.6% | 0% | -59.5% |