Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x2546…5155
sports · 640 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,502 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,347 · open −$156
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,883
Realized−$1,347
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses397 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$715
Open positions16
Markets (closed)624 / 640
History coverage45d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day68.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 16 History 624 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$458
7 days+$723
14 days−$4,483
30 days−$1,527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $790 $780 −$9 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $748 $764 +$16 (+2%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 64¢ $436 $413 −$23 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $340 $354 +$14 (+4%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $348 $348 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $340 $337 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $206 $222 +$16 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $233 $203 −$30 (-13%)
Will Ryan Gravenberch score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 62¢ $143 $160 +$17 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $116 $108 −$7 (-6%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 98¢ 95¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-3%)
Will Takehiro Tomiyasu be in Japan's Starting 11? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Casemiro be in Brazil's Starting 11? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? Yes 94¢ 42¢ $24 $10 −$13 (-56%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 49¢ 0¢ $490 $0 −$490 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Moutet (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5) Moutet 42¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? No 91¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 64¢ 0¢ $206 $0 −$206 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 0¢ $143 $0 −$143 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $677 +$48 +7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Ivan Toney be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $107 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,144 −$123 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,629 +$111 +7%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,567 +$34 +2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $442 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $297 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $970 +$38 +4%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $947 +$41 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $148 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 +$30 +75%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $43 +$27 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $662 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $347 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $517 −$10 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,191 +$39 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,355 +$103 +4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,629 +$54 +3%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $295 +$20 +7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $490 −$490 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $758 −$203 -27%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $359 +$20 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? Jun 10 $621 +$21 +3%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $56 −$8 -14%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $60 −$59 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 10? Jun 10 $191 +$3 +2%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 10 $272 +$75 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $48 $0 +1%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $94 +$56 +60%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 9? Jun 10 $381 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 10 $297 +$7 +2%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 9? Jun 09 $217 +$2 +1%
Nick Kyrgios vs. Corentin Moutet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $49 −$49 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $208 −$206 -99%
Set Handicap: Moutet (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5) Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $240 +$9 +4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,539 +$42 +3%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $58 +$42 +73%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $95 +$1 +1%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $48 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $946 −$170 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $48 +$29 +62%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1,051 +$19 +2%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $168 +$51 +30%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,126 +$85 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$571
weather 22% +$127
other 18% −$701
world 2% −$346
politics 1% +$5
tech 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $724 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 95¢ $62 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 95¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 95¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 95¢ $63 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 95¢ $177 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 92¢ $23 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 91¢ $321 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $135 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $7 3h
Will Ivan Toney be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 97¢ $107 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 62¢ $155 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $130 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 82¢ $252 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $27 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $200 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 93¢ $58 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 86¢ $35 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 86¢ $15 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 86¢ $55 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 86¢ $24 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 97¢ $291 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 97¢ $194 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 95¢ $332 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 96¢ $24 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 96¢ $24 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 96¢ $24 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 96¢ $24 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 96¢ $24 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 96¢ $24 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -9.2% -17.9% 59% 21% -7.9%
≤30d 440 -6.4% -15.3% 62% 31% -10.8%
≤90d 624 -4.5% -13.6% 64% 31% -10.4%
all 624 -4.5% -13.6% 64% 31% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover68.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 31% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 28% -19.0%
15% -29.4% 24% -26.8%
20% -36.3% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,883.36 · official $3,883.53 (match) · 3500 history records