trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -10.9% | -19.4% | 15% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -9.2% | -17.8% | 20% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 28 | -18.3% | -26.1% | 36% | 0% | -11.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.1% | 0% | -11.7% |
| 10% | -33.2% | 0% | -20.1% |
| 15% | -39.6% | 0% | -27.8% |
| 20% | -45.6% | 0% | -34.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | $33 | $33 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 24 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 03 | $26 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 02 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 31 | $37 | $0 | +1% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 31 | $111 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 30 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $2 | −$1 | -51% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 29 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 29 | $2 | $0 | -30% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 27 | $2 | −$1 | -59% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $35 | +$1 | +4% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Dec 09 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 17 | $3 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 12 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on March 10? | Mar 11 | $1 | −$1 | -84% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on March 9? | Mar 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 10 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Army vs. Colgate | Mar 05 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | Mar 05 | $16 | +$1 | +6% |