Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x254a…1e18
sports · 9 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$12 -35%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)2 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 69¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 32¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Japan 77¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Tunisia 75¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 10¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Curaçao 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Under 69¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $2 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $4 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 72¢ $4 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 69¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.95 · official $17.95 (match) · 9 history records