Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x254b…232b other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$32 (+3%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$57
sports 9% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +36.0% +23.1% 58% 58% -10.5%
≤30d 12 +36.0% +23.1% 58% 58% -10.5%
≤90d 12 +36.0% +23.1% 58% 58% -10.5%
all 12 +36.0% +23.1% 58% 58% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.1% 58% -10.5%
10% +11.3% 50% -19.1%
15% +0.6% 50% -26.9%
20% -9.3% 33% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$56 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $37 +$31 +82%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $99 −$62 -63%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$28 +39%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$49 +473%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $28 −$24 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $31 −$2 -8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $215 −$185 -86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $192 +$23 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $117 +$75 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $72 +$45 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $51 +$22 +43%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 51m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $37 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $99 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $28 34h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $31 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 7¢ $30 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $215 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $215 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $192 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $117 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $72 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records