Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x254d…2e79 politics 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$186 (+0%) realized +$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%9W / 69L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$811per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$32
other 36% −$24
world 8% −$13
sports 5% +$243
culture 4% −$5
economics 3% −$3
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -2.6% -11.9% 12% 8% -9.3%
all 78 -3.8% -13.0% 12% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 8% -9.3%
10% -21.3% 8% -18.0%
15% -28.9% 8% -25.9%
20% -35.9% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,007) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$4 · ×12.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$878
Realized+$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses9 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage91d
Avg bet$811
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $591 $591 +$0 (+0%)
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $287 $287 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $228 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $236 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,440 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $387 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $4,569 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,836 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $912 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $992 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 04 $268 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 04 $448 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,377 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,120 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $491 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $1,288 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $3,091 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $911 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $29 +$13 +44%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 19 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $1,090 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $1,107 −$2 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 18 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,074 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 07 $838 +$301 +36%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $523 −$1 -0%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 22 $43 +$25 +60%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,905 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $997 −$1 -0%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $998 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $287 23m
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $228 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $228 5h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $323 22h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $324 24h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $591 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $235 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $236 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $868 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $869 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $559 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $560 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $387 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $387 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $818 11d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $819 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,002 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,003 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $838 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $840 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $739 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $740 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $716 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $717 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $910 18d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $912 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $871 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $872 19d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,066 20d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,068 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $877.97 · official $877.97 (match) · 241 history records