Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
25 0x254f…cf10 crypto 237 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$195 (-8%) realized −$189 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%49W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$55
14 days+$37
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$108
crypto 41% −$259
sports 4% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +1.2% -8.5% 38% 35% +1.9%
≤30d 47 -6.5% -15.4% 36% 34% -6.5%
≤90d 47 -6.5% -15.4% 36% 34% -6.5%
all 236 -22.0% -29.5% 21% 19% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 19% -21.3%
10% -36.2% 18% -28.8%
15% -42.4% 17% -35.7%
20% -48.0% 17% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$7 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses49 / 187
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage134d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 163 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $74 +$49 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$52 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$13 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$15 +282%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $24 +$9 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$12 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$42 +393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$28 +530%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $11 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 15 $17 +$5 +29%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 15 $13 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 9m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $93 13m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $19 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $16 7h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $91 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $39 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $18 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.08 · official $4.08 (match) · 650 history records