Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2550…5828 crypto 1394 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate92%1288W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$4
14 days−$24
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -0.7% -10.2% 95% 8% -10.0%
≤30d 512 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 7% -11.3%
≤90d 1394 -1.6% -10.9% 92% 14% -10.2%
all 1394 -1.6% -10.9% 92% 14% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 14% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 5% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1288 / 106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1394 / 1394
History coverage78d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1394 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.27 · official $6.27 (match) · 3185 history records