Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2550…4788 sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-8%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate80%66W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$12
14 days+$2
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$7
other 23% −$3
crypto 9% −$15
politics 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +3.5% -6.4% 73% 44% -17.4%
≤30d 83 +4.3% -5.6% 80% 53% -19.1%
≤90d 83 +4.3% -5.6% 80% 53% -19.1%
all 83 +4.3% -5.6% 80% 53% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 53% -19.1%
10% -14.6% 25% -26.8%
15% -22.9% 10% -33.9%
20% -30.4% 6% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses66 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)83 / 102
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 45¢ 58¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Under 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 AND Argent Jun 17 $1 +$1 +121%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -35%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$1 -18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 -25%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -30%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $6 −$2 -30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $1 $0 +33%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $4 +$1 +27%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $4 +$1 +24%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $4 $0 +7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 10 $1 −$1 -88%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 AND Eng BUY 81¢ $1 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $2 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $2 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $2 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $2 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $1 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 54¢ $1 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $1 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 AND Argent BUY 45¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $1 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 70¢ $2 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $3 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 63¢ $2 41h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $2 41h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 41h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $2 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 92¢ $2 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.92 · official $60.01 · 194 history records