Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:24:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x2552…76f3 other 9 markets active 2d ago coverage 254d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+7%) realized +$70 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 35% +$51
other 34% +$15
politics 26% +$4
economics 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
≤30d 1 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
≤90d 3 +12.9% +2.2% 100% 67% +2.5%
all 8 +7.0% -3.2% 100% 25% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 25% -2.8%
10% -12.4% 0% -12.1%
15% -20.9% 0% -20.6%
20% -28.7% 0% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage254d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $167 $169 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 18 $144 +$24 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 06 $121 +$24 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 02 $118 +$3 +2%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 04 $109 +$9 +9%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 01 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $192 +$3 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 26 $89 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.54 · official $168.54 (match) · 24 history records