Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x2555…e992 politics 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+0%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$25
politics 39% −$22
sports 4% +$97
crypto 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 120 +1.2% -8.4% 7% 6% -9.5%
all 128 +2.4% -7.4% 9% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 8% -9.4%
10% -16.2% 7% -18.1%
15% -24.3% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$580) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×15.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage115d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $338 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $428 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $372 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $366 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $992 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $52 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,013 −$2 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $654 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $351 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $270 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $348 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $299 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $344 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $329 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $359 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $294 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $1,374 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $339 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $320 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $669 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $275 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $270 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $121 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $763 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $61 16h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 23h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 4d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $61 4d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $61 5d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 9d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $64 11d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $64 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 16d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 17d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 18d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 19d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 19d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 19d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 19d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 20d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 20d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 20d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.99 · official $30.99 (match) · 416 history records