Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2556…b00e sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$259 (-6%) realized −$300 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$318
other 23% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.2% -1.2% 50% 50% +35.4%
≤30d 6 +9.2% -1.2% 50% 50% +35.4%
≤90d 9 -27.2% -34.1% 33% 33% -14.8%
all 53 -20.2% -27.8% 38% 38% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 38% -16.3%
10% -34.7% 38% -24.3%
15% -41.0% 34% -31.7%
20% -46.8% 34% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$62 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage231d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 100¢ $30 $56 +$26 (+85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$53 +105%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 +$45 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $51 +$82 +161%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$22 -72%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 07 $52 −$51 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 10 $93 +$158 +170%
Warriors vs. Lakers Feb 08 $100 +$92 +92%
Pistons vs. Lakers Dec 30 $67 −$67 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Dec 16 $60 +$62 +104%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $100 +$89 +89%
Spread: Lakers (-2.5) Dec 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 14 $100 −$25 -25%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Dec 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Lakers vs. 76ers Dec 08 $50 +$52 +104%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-12-06? Dec 07 $100 +$85 +85%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-06? Dec 07 $100 +$92 +92%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Lakers vs. Raptors Dec 05 $80 +$98 +122%
Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5 Dec 03 $100 +$79 +79%
Suns vs. Lakers Dec 02 $202 −$185 -91%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Dec 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Jazz Dec 02 $60 −$37 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 25 $20 −$8 -38%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Nov 25 $100 +$85 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 25 $10 −$6 -62%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Nov 25 $100 +$88 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Jazz Nov 22 $50 +$13 +27%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Nov 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Jazz vs. Lakers Nov 19 $150 +$52 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 10 $20 −$13 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 09 $20 −$15 -77%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $156 +$244 +156%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $144 −$144 -100%
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Nov 09 $50 +$50 +100%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Nov 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Nov 06 $153 −$153 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 06 $100 +$184 +184%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Nov 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $30 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 16h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $20 16h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $21 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $31 17h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 43¢ $46 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $51 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $8 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 5d
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) BUY Lakers 52¢ $52 46d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 13¢ $31 46d
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) BUY Lakers 46¢ $51 50d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 60¢ $200 100d
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 28¢ $40 113d
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY BNK FEARX 14¢ $30 113d
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $93 134d
Warriors vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 52¢ $100 134d
Pistons vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 44¢ $67 174d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 188d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 188d
Rockets vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 49¢ $60 188d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 190d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 190d
Spread: Lakers (-2.5) BUY Lakers 53¢ $100 190d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 13¢ $11 190d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 14¢ $14 190d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 89¢ $191 190d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 35¢ $75 190d
Timberwolves vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 55¢ $100 191d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.04 · official $271.04 (match) · 290 history records