Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2557…2adf politics 144 markets active 3d ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%55W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% +$24
other 23% −$16
world 22% −$21
tech 7% +$3
finance 6% +$11
sports 5% +$5
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -21.0% -28.5% 33% 33% -22.3%
≤30d 24 -68.1% -71.2% 17% 17% -66.8%
≤90d 90 -28.7% -35.5% 40% 40% -26.9%
all 119 -14.2% -22.3% 46% 46% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 46% -8.6%
10% -29.8% 46% -17.4%
15% -36.6% 31% -25.3%
20% -42.8% 25% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses55 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)119 / 144
History coverage132d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 68¢ 98¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+45%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No 77¢ 97¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 15%+? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No 58¢ 56¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No 85¢ 78¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 78¢ 78¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Yes 67¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+34%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 63¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 47¢ 54¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Labor Secretary No 60¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 76¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 23¢ 36¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+54%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 30¢ 44¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+48%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 69¢ 33¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? No 22¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No 23¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-45%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 22¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-82%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $5 +$6 +137%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Encore Medical not IPO before June 2026? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.3B? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $5 +$8 +144%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.9B? May 20 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 Week of May 11 2026? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 11? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of May 11 2026? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $7 +$3 +43%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $5 +$6 +138%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $6 +$2 +33%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $7 +$2 +28%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $6 +$5 +89%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in April? May 12 $8 +$3 +43%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April? May 12 $5 +$9 +179%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April? May 12 $4 +$5 +149%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? May 02 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? May 02 $8 +$3 +39%
Will Clorox (CLX) beat quarterly earnings? May 01 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $1 +$5 +380%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 26 $2 +$3 +148%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 24, 202 Apr 26 $5 +$4 +75%
Will PLC win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Re Apr 26 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $5 +$2 +33%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on April 22? Apr 23 $5 +$7 +133%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $360 Week of April 13 2026 Apr 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Apr 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 47¢ $1 3d
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 4d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 5d
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 41¢ $5 6d
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El BUY No 95¢ $10 20d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $1 21d
Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.3B? BUY No 29¢ $3 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $5 27d
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY No 23¢ $3 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 32d
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $9 32d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 63¢ $5 33d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 33d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 69¢ $7 33d
Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.9B? BUY No 79¢ $6 34d
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close BUY No 48¢ $5 34d
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 34d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Down 41¢ $5 35d
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 47¢ $5 35d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 Week of May 11 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 35d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY No 23¢ $3 36d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 12? BUY Down 52¢ $6 36d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 36d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 28¢ $4 37d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 42¢ $3 37d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 37d
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 38d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $5 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.28 · official $134.38 (match) · 264 history records