trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +13.0% | +2.2% | 100% | 100% | +2.2% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +12.9% | +2.1% | 50% | 50% | -5.1% |
| all | 16 | -8.2% | -16.9% | 50% | 44% | -20.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.9% | 44% | -20.3% |
| 10% | -24.9% | 12% | -27.9% |
| 15% | -32.1% | 12% | -34.9% |
| 20% | -38.8% | 12% | -41.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 72¢ | 72¢ | $502 | $506 | +$3 (+1%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | $98 | $79 | −$19 (-19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Jun 05 | $100 | +$13 | +13% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 06 | $74 | +$11 | +14% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 06 | $26 | −$6 | -23% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 03 | $100 | +$20 | +20% |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | Apr 28 | $100 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections | Apr 28 | $100 | −$8 | -8% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | Apr 01 | $58 | −$58 | -100% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Apr 01 | $43 | +$57 | +134% |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on | Apr 01 | $62 | −$62 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap | Apr 01 | $37 | +$67 | +179% |
| Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Mar 18 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Mar 18 | $100 | +$14 | +14% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Mar 17 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Chinese Taipei win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Mar 17 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Mar 04 | $100 | +$18 | +18% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap | Feb 28 | $40 | +$3 | +9% |