Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
25 0x255e…5456 sports 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,724 (+22%) realized +$7,888 · open −$1,164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%32W / 34L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$329est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$4,571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$952
7 days+$5,799
14 days+$6,214
30 days+$6,214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$2,805
other 35% +$2,568
crypto 4% +$178
world 2% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +44.7% +30.9% 48% 48% +14.9%
≤30d 66 +42.6% +29.0% 48% 48% +14.7%
≤90d 66 +42.6% +29.0% 48% 48% +14.7%
all 66 +42.6% +29.0% 48% 48% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.0% 48% +14.7%
10% +16.7% 48% +3.7%
15% +5.4% 45% -6.3%
20% -4.9% 44% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$609) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +65% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$426 vs −$218 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$4,571
Realized+$7,888
Unrealized−$1,164
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$329
Open positions11
Markets (closed)66 / 78
History coverage9d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 44¢ 42¢ $900 $869 −$31 (-3%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 60¢ 60¢ $800 $793 −$7 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 57¢ 56¢ $800 $793 −$7 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 37¢ 36¢ $800 $789 −$11 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $609 $633 +$24 (+4%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $610 $582 −$28 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 43¢ 0¢ $500 $1 −$499 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 49¢ 0¢ $500 $1 −$499 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 36¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $710 +$495 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $709 +$489 +69%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $707 +$408 +58%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $233 +$207 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$82 +79%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $508 −$500 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $611 −$600 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,016 +$769 +76%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 +$33 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $609 +$576 +95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $160 +$45 +28%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,624 −$989 -61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $508 +$497 +98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $610 −$58 -9%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $610 +$818 +134%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,016 +$1,112 +109%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,017 −$657 -65%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$101 +982%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $610 +$569 +93%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $610 +$818 +134%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 +$155 +76%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $8 +$392 +4757%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $814 +$1,091 +134%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $303 −$1 -0%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,011 −$748 -74%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $305 +$71 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,017 −$500 -49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $609 −$304 -50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $711 −$290 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $815 26m
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $810 30m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $810 30m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $305 31m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $610 42m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $305 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 36¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 66¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $305 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 91¢ $1,205 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 52¢ $203 13h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $1,198 14h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 57¢ $203 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $101 25h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 55¢ $101 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $304 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 26h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 45¢ $51 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 26h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 49¢ $305 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $302 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $101 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $507 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,570.75 · official $4,570.89 (match) · 163 history records