Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x2561…ce3e
crypto · 1003 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$2,012 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$221 · open +$50
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$189
Realized+$221
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses761 / 234
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)995 / 1003
History coverage92d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 995 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$170
14 days+$217
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 45¢ 100¢ $25 $55 +$30 (+120%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 37¢ 52¢ $33 $46 +$13 (+38%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 25¢ 44¢ $15 $27 +$12 (+80%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 35¢ 42¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 37¢ 62¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 35¢ 20¢ $21 $12 −$9 (-42%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 37¢ 26¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 17¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 38¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 29¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Under 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 37¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets New York Mets 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Chicago Sky 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $24 +$11 +46%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% +$135
sports 7% +$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 76¢ $5 1m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 54¢ $5 5m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 26¢ $5 5m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 33¢ $5 9m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 35¢ $5 10m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 23¢ $5 18m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $5 18m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 20¢ $1 20m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 42¢ $5 23m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 31¢ $5 26m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 33¢ $5 27m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 32¢ $5 28m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 32¢ $5 28m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 30¢ $3 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 34m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $5 42m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $5 43m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 30¢ $5 53m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 29¢ $5 59m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 17¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 32¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 92¢ $5 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $5 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 65¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 30¢ $5 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $5 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $5 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $5 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 932 +2.6% -7.1% 77% 75% -6.7%
≤30d 986 +3.5% -6.4% 77% 75% -5.5%
≤90d 986 +3.5% -6.4% 77% 75% -5.5%
all 995 +3.4% -6.4% 76% 74% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 74% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 53% -15.9%
15% -23.6% 25% -24.0%
20% -31.1% 7% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.84 · official $196.92 · 3500 history records