Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x2566…b85a
other · 351 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$66 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses163 / 188
Open positions0
Markets (closed)351 / 351
History coverage237d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%
Chart Positions 0 History 351 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025) Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? No 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? No 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? No 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? No 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13.5m? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18.5m? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 08 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 08 $2 +$1 +42%
Josh Allen x Hailee Steinfeld baby: Boy or Girl? Mar 08 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 08 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 08 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 03 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 03 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 03 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 03 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 03 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 03 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 03 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 03 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 03 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 03 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 02 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 02 $2 +$8 +392%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 02 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 02 $1 +$1 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 02 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 02 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 02 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 68% −$15
culture 14% −$43
crypto 12% −$7
politics 3% −$4
world 3% +$7
weather 1% −$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $0 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 97d
Josh Allen x Hailee Steinfeld baby: Boy or Girl? SELL Girl 48¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -79.1% -81.1% 0% 0% -71.2%
≤30d 3 -79.1% -81.1% 0% 0% -71.2%
≤90d 3 -79.1% -81.1% 0% 0% -71.2%
all 351 -10.2% -18.7% 46% 38% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 38% -20.9%
10% -26.5% 28% -28.5%
15% -33.6% 20% -35.4%
20% -40.1% 15% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 869 history records