trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $41 | +$5 | +13% |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? | Jun 10 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | Jun 07 | $34 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | Jun 04 | $336 | +$26 | +8% |
| Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? | Jun 01 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $7,641 | +$404 | +5% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | Jun 01 | $229 | +$3 | +1% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | May 31 | $53 | +$9 | +16% |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | May 31 | $53 | −$1 | -3% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 29 | $163 | −$35 | -22% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 28 | $47 | −$1 | -2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 27 | $128 | +$4 | +3% |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25? | May 26 | $1,866 | +$40 | +2% |
| Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $16 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? | May 22 | $4 | $0 | +8% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22? | May 22 | $33 | −$29 | -87% |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? | May 18 | $4 | +$1 | +19% |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | May 18 | $165 | +$26 | +16% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | May 18 | $135 | +$35 | +26% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 100% | 33% | -2.9% |
| ≤30d | 19 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 74% | 26% | -6.8% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 74% | 26% | -6.8% |
| all | 19 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 74% | 26% | -6.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -13.7% | 26% | -6.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -21.9% | 5% | -15.7% |
| 15% | -29.5% | 0% | -23.8% |
| 20% | -36.4% | 0% | -31.3% |