Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
25 0x2569…5d2d crypto 1431 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,334 (-11%) realized −$15,235 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%688W / 742L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$515
7 days−$1,163
14 days−$403
30 days−$1,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$11,632
sports 2% −$605
other 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 -5.1% -14.1% 48% 47% -14.9%
≤30d 375 -4.7% -13.8% 49% 49% -13.4%
≤90d 1428 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 47% -17.6%
all 1430 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 47% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 47% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 47% -25.3%
15% -31.6% 46% -32.5%
20% -38.3% 44% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$94 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15,235
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses688 / 742
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1430 / 1431
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 241 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $207 +$170 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $340 −$158 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $206 +$151 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$84 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $341 −$330 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$100 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$99 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$154 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$101 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$73 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$103 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$102 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$96 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $340 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $341 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $36.11 · 3500 history records