Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x256b…97bb sports 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,282 (+8%) realized +$1,368 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%122W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days+$29
14 days+$548
30 days+$912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,598
other 11% −$515
world 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +10.1% -0.4% 59% 56% -8.5%
≤30d 138 +5.3% -4.8% 55% 54% -0.5%
≤90d 243 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 50% -2.2%
all 243 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 50% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 50% -2.2%
10% -16.6% 50% -11.5%
15% -24.7% 49% -20.1%
20% -32.1% 44% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$55 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized+$1,368
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses122 / 121
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions7
Markets (closed)243 / 250
History coverage44d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 47¢ $150 $124 −$26 (-18%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 39¢ 24¢ $150 $90 −$60 (-40%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 64¢ 66¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 48¢ 48¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 42¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $51 +$35 +68%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 +$74 +146%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $51 +$63 +124%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$96 +188%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$46 +152%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $30 +$23 +76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 16 $204 +$309 +152%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$44 +44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $93 −$72 -77%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$61 -60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $51 +$5 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$21 +42%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $51 +$36 +70%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $51 +$47 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 +$42 +83%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 +$48 +94%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $61 +$55 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 +$37 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,313 +$1,043 +79%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 09 $102 +$106 +104%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $25 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $25 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $51 25h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 28h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $51 28h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $101 34h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 34¢ $51 35h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $51 35h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 39¢ $153 40h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $152 40h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $51 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $51 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $51 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $51 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $51 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $51 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 3d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 45¢ $30 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $30 3d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $31 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $30 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.39 · official $364.39 (match) · 467 history records