Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x256c…8a8f other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$40 (+9%) realized +$42 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$21
crypto 22% +$6
sports 3% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +20.4% +8.9% 75% 50% +10.2%
≤30d 8 +20.4% +8.9% 75% 50% +10.2%
≤90d 8 +20.4% +8.9% 75% 50% +10.2%
all 8 +20.4% +8.9% 75% 50% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 50% +10.2%
10% -1.5% 50% -0.4%
15% -11.0% 50% -10.0%
20% -19.7% 25% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.89 per $1 lost it wins $5.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$16 +160%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $48 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 43h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.46 · official $218.46 (match) · 22 history records