Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x256c…3046 sports 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$94 (+1%) realized +$123 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%39W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$22
14 days+$6
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$55
sports 21% −$58
other 21% +$11
crypto 7% −$82
finance 0% +$3
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -10.1% -18.7% 33% 33% +5.8%
≤30d 53 -46.2% -51.3% 19% 19% -43.2%
≤90d 90 -24.2% -31.5% 31% 26% -20.3%
all 113 -22.0% -29.4% 35% 26% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 26% -10.0%
10% -36.2% 23% -18.6%
15% -42.4% 19% -26.4%
20% -48.0% 18% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$123
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses39 / 74
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions3
Markets (closed)113 / 116
History coverage595d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-3.5) France 36¢ 16¢ $54 $25 −$29 (-54%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $27 +$28 +104%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $28 −$21 -76%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $4 +$7 +158%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$18 +180%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 +$33 +313%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $18 +$16 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 +$28 +525%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$12 +239%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $47 −$16 -35%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $72 +$12 +17%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $76 −$58 -77%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $9 +$2 +19%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic May 29 $15 −$15 -98%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $164 −$1 -1%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 36¢ $55 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 22¢ $6 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $2 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $3 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $27 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden $0 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden $4 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 2d
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic $7 2d
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic $10 2d
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 11¢ $6 2d
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 11¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic SELL Viktorija Golubic 28¢ $6 2d
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 25¢ $6 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 21¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 38¢ $4 3d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 19¢ $4 5d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 10¢ $2 5d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 11¢ $4 5d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 10¢ $0 5d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 10¢ $1 5d
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 52¢ $5 5d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $10 6d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $6 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $3 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $8 6d
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 34¢ $2 6d
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 35¢ $4 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.23 · official $31.23 (match) · 788 history records