Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:23:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
25 0x256e…ba7e sports 563 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+6%) realized +$72 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%332W / 219L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$1
14 days+$19
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% +$46
sports 43% +$20
politics 3% +$7
crypto 3% −$22
other 1% +$2
culture 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 +1.2% -8.5% 61% 61% -9.0%
≤30d 485 -1.0% -10.4% 61% 60% -14.7%
≤90d 551 +3.6% -6.2% 60% 59% -4.2%
all 551 +3.6% -6.2% 60% 59% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 59% -4.2%
10% -15.2% 58% -13.3%
15% -23.4% 41% -21.7%
20% -30.9% 24% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses332 / 219
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)551 / 563
History coverage63d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 551 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 173 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $2 +$2 +81%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +121%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +84%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 −$1 -99%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +59%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $2 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $2 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +498%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $2 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $2 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$2 +129%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 $0 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL 100 Thieves 35¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 99¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 66¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 99¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 80¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 54¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 61¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 70¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 10h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $3 19h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Infinite 69¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 100¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 38¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 78¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes $1 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $3 29h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series SELL Ground Zero 100¢ $3 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 70¢ $2 30h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY Ground Zero 69¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 34h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 35h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 60¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.53 · official $9.48 (match) · 1149 history records