Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:53:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x2572…bb08 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$548 (+5%) realized +$548 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate69%34W / 15L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$195
7 days+$1,210
14 days+$290
30 days+$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$400
other 8% +$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +27.1% +15.0% 93% 93% +16.9%
≤30d 49 -4.0% -13.1% 69% 59% -4.4%
≤90d 49 -4.0% -13.1% 69% 59% -4.4%
all 49 -4.0% -13.1% 69% 59% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 59% -4.4%
10% -21.4% 45% -13.6%
15% -29.0% 24% -21.9%
20% -36.0% 10% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$133 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$548
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses34 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage32d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $80 +$16 +20%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $735 +$119 +16%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $502 +$60 +12%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $505 +$170 +34%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $252 +$73 +29%
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz Jun 20 $303 +$144 +48%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova Jun 20 $102 −$82 -81%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$139 +69%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $403 +$154 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $555 +$220 +40%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 +$15 +14%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $201 +$49 +24%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $474 −$474 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $443 +$151 +34%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $515 −$64 -12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $303 −$303 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $253 +$210 +83%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $111 −$111 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $151 +$71 +47%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $304 +$346 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $163 −$163 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $101 −$101 -100%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $421 +$46 +11%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $201 +$70 +35%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $410 +$92 +22%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $101 +$33 +33%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Talia Gibson vs Alina Charaeva Jun 07 $392 +$79 +20%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $433 +$44 +10%
Will Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata end in a draw? Jun 07 $252 +$64 +25%
Will Blaublitz Akita vs. Kagoshima United FC end in a draw? Jun 07 $215 +$11 +5%
Will Tochigi SC vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū end in a draw? Jun 07 $50 −$24 -47%
Will Tokushima Vortis vs. Iwaki FC end in a draw? Jun 07 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw? Jun 07 $32 +$12 +38%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw? Jun 06 $24 +$9 +36%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? Jun 06 $17 +$7 +41%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $11 +$6 +55%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $208 −$208 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 03 $44 −$44 -100%
Centurion: Edward Winter vs Robert Strombachs Jun 01 $10 +$1 +7%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 29 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 29 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $854 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $171 2h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $80 7h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $282 7h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $282 7h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $502 47h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $675 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $505 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 88¢ $5 4d
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz BUY Martha Matoula 84¢ $100 4d
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz BUY Martha Matoula 81¢ $101 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $252 4d
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova SELL Alevtina Ibragimova $19 4d
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz BUY Martha Matoula 49¢ $102 4d
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova BUY Alevtina Ibragimova 45¢ $102 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $101 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $303 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $555 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $100 8d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $201 8d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 95¢ $10 9d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $101 9d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $101 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $129 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $201 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $273 10d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $443 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records