Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x257a…b42a other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$146 (+8%) realized +$161 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$55
other 44% +$96
crypto 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +49.4% +35.2% 57% 57% +14.4%
≤30d 7 +49.4% +35.2% 57% 57% +14.4%
≤90d 7 +49.4% +35.2% 57% 57% +14.4%
all 7 +49.4% +35.2% 57% 57% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.2% 57% +14.4%
10% +22.2% 43% +3.5%
15% +10.4% 43% -6.5%
20% -0.4% 29% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$41 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,185
Realized+$161
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions9
Markets (closed)7 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 54¢ 55¢ $350 $353 +$3 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 51¢ $250 $244 −$6 (-2%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $51 +$34 +67%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $15 +$78 +510%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $126 +$25 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $304 +$148 +49%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $78 −$77 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 37¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 54¢ $355 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $254 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 92¢ $451 8h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 9h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 9h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 57¢ $78 9h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $126 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 61¢ $304 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,184.68 · official $1,184.73 (match) · 20 history records