Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
25 0x257b…efc0 sports 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$357 (-9%) realized −$352 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%22W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$16
14 days+$142
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$423
sports 34% +$59
crypto 0% −$14
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +170.7% +144.9% 50% 50% -12.8%
≤30d 19 +166.2% +140.9% 53% 53% +11.4%
≤90d 21 +156.8% +132.3% 52% 52% +13.8%
all 58 +18.0% +6.7% 38% 29% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 29% -19.1%
10% -3.5% 26% -26.9%
15% -12.8% 19% -33.9%
20% -21.3% 19% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late +103% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$38 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$352
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses22 / 36
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions40
Markets (closed)58 / 98
History coverage236d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $41 +$148 +360%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$68 +1331%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $183 +$157 +86%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $152 −$152 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) Mar 26 $100 +$233 +233%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jan 16 $215 −$215 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $418 +$33 +8%
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 08 $371 −$371 -100%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 08 $310 +$83 +27%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jan 01 $389 +$54 +14%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 31 $346 +$39 +11%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 31 $134 −$18 -13%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 29 $6 −$4 -60%
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale? Dec 29 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $71 +$7 +10%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on November 4? Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 4? Nov 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 03 $21 +$6 +30%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $25 −$5 -20%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $70 −$65 -93%
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26? Oct 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $30 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 8h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 8h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 8h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 8h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 8h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 8h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 8h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 8h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 8h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.91 · official $194.92 (match) · 253 history records