Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x257b…0e25 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$107 (+27%) realized +$106 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$61
other 24% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +41.9% +28.4% 59% 59% +7.1%
≤30d 22 +41.9% +28.4% 59% 59% +7.1%
≤90d 22 +41.9% +28.4% 59% 59% +7.1%
all 22 +41.9% +28.4% 59% 59% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.4% 59% +7.1%
10% +16.1% 59% -3.1%
15% +4.9% 59% -12.5%
20% -5.4% 59% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Over 46¢ 46¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $32 +$41 +129%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$31 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $35 +$39 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $20 +$34 +166%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$13 +62%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$15 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +344%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $7 +$7 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $7 +$4 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$15 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$11 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $34 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $34 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $32 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $31 20h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 21h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $44 21h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $35 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 37¢ $20 39h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $20 44h
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $7 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $7 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $7 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $7 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $11 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $6 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.65 · official $66.65 (match) · 40 history records