Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x257b…c08b sports 532 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+3%) realized +$136 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%275W / 253L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$960
14 days−$825
30 days−$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$62
other 0% +$7
crypto 0% −$8
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -63.1% -66.6% 17% 17% -66.9%
≤30d 198 -19.0% -26.7% 41% 41% -25.3%
≤90d 410 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 52% -11.4%
all 528 +3.8% -6.1% 52% 52% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 52% -8.3%
10% -15.1% 52% -17.1%
15% -23.3% 52% -25.1%
20% -30.8% 51% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses275 / 253
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions4
Markets (closed)528 / 532
History coverage136d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ 55¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 56¢ 56¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 57¢ 56¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$14 +140%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $14 −$13 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $14 +$10 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 52m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $10 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $10 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $13 1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $10 23h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 43¢ $10 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 23h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $14 23h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $17 23h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $21 23h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $10 45h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $10 45h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $10 45h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $10 45h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $14 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $10 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $7 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ $10 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $10 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $14 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 49¢ $15 3d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 20¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 43¢ $10 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $10 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $10 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $17 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.75 · official $35.75 (match) · 1087 history records