Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x257c…a408 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,309 (+15%) realized +$1,626 · open −$317
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$602per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$760
30 days+$1,396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,078
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +23.4% +11.6% 90% 70% +6.4%
≤90d 10 +23.4% +11.6% 90% 70% +6.4%
all 10 +23.4% +11.6% 90% 70% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 70% +6.4%
10% +1.0% 50% -3.8%
15% -8.8% 40% -13.1%
20% -17.7% 10% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$28 · ×5.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×50.16 per $1 lost it wins $50.16
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$783
Realized+$1,626
Unrealized−$317
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage16d
Avg bet$602
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs OG 76¢ 57¢ $300 $227 −$73 (-24%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner OG 60¢ 53¢ $200 $178 −$22 (-11%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner OG 77¢ 57¢ $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Prestige 87¢ 100¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner MOUZ 81¢ 30¢ $300 $113 −$187 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $384 +$182 +47%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$115 +57%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $902 +$65 +7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,002 +$32 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2,006 +$229 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $303 +$138 +46%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $502 +$81 +16%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $807 +$379 +47%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$28 -28%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $705 +$203 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 76¢ $302 43m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 60¢ $202 47m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 77¢ $201 55m
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY Prestige 87¢ $100 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 81¢ $302 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 94¢ $566 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $384 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $317 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $202 9d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $967 11d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $2,033 11d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $902 11d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $2,002 11d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $1,004 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $1,003 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $441 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $303 14d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 86¢ $502 14d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $1,187 15d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA 43¢ $73 15d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 58¢ $101 15d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 80¢ $302 15d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 70¢ $303 15d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 52¢ $203 15d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $908 16d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 77¢ $705 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $782.63 · official $782.63 (match) · 28 history records