Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x257e…5680 politics 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 674d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$223 (-4%) realized −$223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$23
14 days−$127
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$7
other 34% −$10
finance 5% −$93
tech 5% −$20
economics 4% −$7
world 2% +$15
sports 2% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -15.0% -23.1% 0% 0% -18.8%
≤30d 11 -14.1% -22.2% 27% 9% -16.5%
≤90d 17 -2.0% -11.4% 29% 18% -19.6%
all 37 -1.4% -10.8% 32% 24% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 24% -13.4%
10% -19.3% 22% -21.7%
15% -27.1% 8% -29.3%
20% -34.2% 8% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

674d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage674d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 24 $121 −$1 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $52 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 18 $50 −$20 -40%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $248 −$93 -38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $39 +$11 +28%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $199 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $76 $0 +0%
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? May 28 $190 −$1 -0%
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? May 28 $148 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 27 $375 +$1 +0%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 19 $28 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $393 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 14 $53 −$52 -99%
Government shutdown on Saturday? May 14 $1 +$4 +300%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? May 14 $17 +$3 +20%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Feb 09 $7 −$7 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 09 $24 +$8 +32%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $189 $0 +0%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 17 $2 +$3 +220%
Will another candidate be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Jan 20 $0 $0 +67%
Will Mark Kelly be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Jan 20 $0 $0 +33%
Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? Jan 20 $0 $0 -33%
Will Gina Raimondo be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Jan 20 $0 $0 +33%
Will a candidate from another party win Florida US Senate Election? Jan 20 $1 $0 +33%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 20 $497 −$1 -0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will J.B. Pritzker be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electio Aug 21 $0 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Aug 21 $0 $0 +0%
Will any other Republican Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Aug 20 $497 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Aug 20 $497 $0 -0%
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Aug 20 $494 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 20 $494 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 20 $497 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 91¢ $120 1h
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 91¢ $121 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $50 4d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 4d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 5d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 20d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 21d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? BUY Yes 78¢ $23 22d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes 38¢ $72 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 38¢ $76 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $146 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $83 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $83 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 23d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $46 26d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $48 26d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $95 26d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $86 26d
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $148 26d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $9 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records