Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
25 0x257f…6833 crypto 19 markets active 8d ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+3%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% $0
other 23% +$3
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -1.9% -11.2% 71% 71% -1.9%
≤90d 19 -11.6% -20.0% 68% 58% -7.3%
all 19 -11.6% -20.0% 68% 58% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 58% -7.3%
10% -27.7% 37% -16.2%
15% -34.7% 21% -24.3%
20% -41.1% 11% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage54d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +66%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 24 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 24 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 24 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 24 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 24 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 24 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 24 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 8d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 90¢ $1 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $13 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records