Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x2581…b2a1
other · 64 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$106 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$106 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses12 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage610d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 0 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $48 $0 +1%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $78 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $61 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $68 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $66 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $68 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $65 $0 -0%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Apr 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 06 $24 $0 +2%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-15? Mar 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nets Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 22? Mar 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 26 $26 +$7 +25%
Sharks vs. Oilers Mar 22 $27 +$16 +61%
Red Wings vs. Stars Mar 15 $25 +$15 +59%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-03-13? Mar 14 $83 +$24 +28%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 13 $23 +$18 +79%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 11 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% −$12
politics 11% −$7
other 7% −$50
sports 1% −$36
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $9 6h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 39h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 40h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $5 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 8d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 100¢ $13 20d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 0% 0% -22.3%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -14.9% 12% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 47 -11.8% -20.2% 15% 6% -15.8%
all 64 -7.2% -16.0% 19% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 8% -10.1%
10% -24.1% 8% -18.7%
15% -31.4% 5% -26.5%
20% -38.1% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 300 history records