Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
25 0x2584…8018 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-1%) realized −$93 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$1,530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$163
sports 29% +$936
world 8% −$995
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -28.1% -35.0% 41% 41% -11.4%
≤30d 41 -28.1% -35.0% 41% 41% -11.4%
≤90d 41 -28.1% -35.0% 41% 41% -11.4%
all 41 -28.1% -35.0% 41% 41% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.0% 41% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -41.2% 41% -19.9%
15% -46.9% 39% -27.6%
20% -52.1% 32% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$161 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,530
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions5
Markets (closed)41 / 46
History coverage3d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $892 $884 −$8 (-1%)
Czechia leading at halftime? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Czechia to win the second half? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $95 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $304 +$222 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$213 +70%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $234 +$236 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $303 +$151 +50%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Austria to win the second half? Jun 17 $304 +$200 +66%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $504 +$199 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $202 +$77 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $303 +$172 +57%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $203 +$141 +69%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $812 +$217 +27%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $816 −$816 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $122 +$113 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $506 +$326 +64%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $708 +$355 +50%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $507 +$402 +79%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $92 −$91 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $184 −$180 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $496 −$491 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $297 +$503 +170%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $220 −$216 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $867 −$857 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $250 −$248 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 58m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 58m
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $305 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 1h
Czechia to win the second half? SELL Yes 43¢ $144 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $395 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 4h
Czechia to win the second half? BUY Yes 44¢ $305 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 4h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $526 8h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 19h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 19h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 19h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $183 20h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,529.56 · official $1,529.56 (match) · 86 history records