Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
25 0x2585…eb9f other 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$76 (+4%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%45W / 38L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$4
14 days−$97
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$30
other 21% −$10
sports 14% +$124
world 3% −$1
culture 1% −$6
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.2% -28.7% 53% 41% -11.9%
≤30d 41 -35.9% -42.0% 41% 34% -22.3%
≤90d 42 -36.0% -42.1% 40% 33% -22.5%
all 83 +2.4% -7.4% 54% 45% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 45% -5.8%
10% -16.2% 41% -14.8%
15% -24.3% 33% -23.1%
20% -31.8% 28% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses45 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)83 / 91
History coverage462d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 66¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting? Yes 36¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +60%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea Jun 15 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. KT Wiz Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 30? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -75%
Will the People Power Party win less than or equal to 1 seat in South Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested by August 31? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $151 +$28 +19%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $5 −$2 -37%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Mar 18 $5 +$10 +203%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela Mar 18 $4 +$7 +176%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 16 $1 +$2 +178%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 07 $20 +$10 +52%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $10 −$7 -73%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Ch Feb 24 $30 +$19 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $35 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 96¢ $15 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $0 24h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July SELL Yes 22¢ $6 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 9d
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July BUY Yes 30¢ $1 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 78¢ $3 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 77¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.31 · official $65.31 (match) · 276 history records