Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2585…d058 sports 352 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-6%) realized −$74 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%150W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$4
14 days−$72
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$55
crypto 13% −$16
other 8% −$7
world 1% +$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -11.1% -19.6% 22% 22% +0.5%
≤30d 332 -12.4% -20.7% 45% 42% -16.6%
≤90d 332 -12.4% -20.7% 45% 42% -16.6%
all 332 -12.4% -20.7% 45% 42% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 42% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 39% -24.6%
15% -35.2% 32% -31.9%
20% -41.6% 23% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses150 / 182
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions20
Markets (closed)332 / 352
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Gerard Campana Lee 17¢ 80¢ $1 $6 +$4 (+374%)
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Alan Wazny 14¢ 52¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+268%)
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Jana Otzipka 13¢ 42¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+225%)
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Pedro Martinez 15¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+97%)
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Franco Ribero 15¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+70%)
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Angelina Voloshchuk 19¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Over 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Australia leading at halftime? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Olle Wallin 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Gabriel Diallo 20¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Tomas Etcheverry 23¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Xinyu Gao 19¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-45%)
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Mathilde Lollia 21¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jerome Kym 22¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Clara Tauson 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Martin Damm 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Aleksandar Kovacevic 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Vit Kopriva 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open (Doubles): Cobolli/Shelton vs Pavlasek/Vavassori Jun 16 $1 +$7 +550%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 +$5 +442%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Will FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $2 +$3 +108%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $2 +$5 +206%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 11 $2 +$2 +74%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -8%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 09 $2 $0 -11%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Jana Kovackova vs Amandine Monnot Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Weronika Falkowska Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $3 −$1 -29%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 09 $0 $0 -40%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 -19%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 -11%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 09 $4 +$1 +29%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-20.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11 −$9 -76%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $3 +$2 +70%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $6 +$4 +57%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 15¢ $1 5m
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 23¢ $1 8m
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 9m
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia BUY Mathilde Lollia 21¢ $1 10m
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Franco Ribero 15¢ $1 39m
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk BUY Angelina Voloshchuk 19¢ $1 41m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 14¢ $1 47m
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 14¢ $0 48m
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 14¢ $1 48m
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao BUY Xinyu Gao 19¢ $1 51m
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Olle Wallin 21¢ $1 54m
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 20¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 24¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 22¢ $1 1h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cobolli/Shelton vs Pavlasek/Vavassori BUY Cobolli/Shelton 15¢ $1 1h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Antonia Ruzic 16¢ $1 1h
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel BUY Jana Otzipka 13¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 19¢ $1 1h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 17¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 23¢ $1 1h
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet BUY Maxime Janvier 16¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 19¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $1 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 18¢ $1 37h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $2 3d
Valencia vs. Joventut BUY Joventut 7¢ $3 3d
Will FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès end in a draw? BUY No 32¢ $2 3d
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 66¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.73 · official $28.73 (match) · 1141 history records