Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2586…794e other 81 markets active 2d ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$75 (-37%) realized −$74 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$49
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$49
weather 24% −$7
world 18% −$21
crypto 15% −$10
politics 6% −$8
sports 4% −$7
economics 2% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -91.4% -92.2% 6% 6% -87.9%
≤30d 19 -91.3% -92.1% 5% 5% -88.1%
≤90d 57 -64.6% -67.9% 21% 11% -69.3%
all 73 -43.3% -48.7% 32% 15% -44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 15% -44.0%
10% -53.6% 12% -49.4%
15% -58.1% 12% -54.3%
20% -62.2% 11% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)73 / 81
History coverage172d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -88%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -87%
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 20? Apr 17 $0 $0 +133%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 17? Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 18? Apr 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 12? Apr 12 $3 −$2 -73%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6? Apr 05 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 8? Apr 04 $2 +$1 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 3? Apr 02 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or higher on April 1? Apr 01 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 1? Apr 01 $1 $0 +13%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 29? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Mar 24 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 24? Mar 24 $11 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Nymburk vs. Pallacanestro Trieste Mar 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8? Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 18? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 21 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 17? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 18? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 9d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 20? SELL No $0 62d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 17? BUY No $0 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 20? BUY No $0 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 20? BUY No $0 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 18? BUY No $0 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.04 · official $6.04 (match) · 162 history records