Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:27:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

25 0x2586…46d1 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$28 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$100per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-4.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+5.4%	-4.7%	29%	29%	-16.0%
≤30d	7	+5.4%	-4.7%	29%	29%	-16.0%
≤90d	7	+5.4%	-4.7%	29%	29%	-16.0%
all	7	+5.4%	-4.7%	29%	29%	-16.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.7%	29%	-16.0%
10%	-13.8%	14%	-24.0%
15%	-22.1%	14%	-31.4%
20%	-29.7%	14%	-38.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.68 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$510

Realized−$28

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage4d

Avg bet$100

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Brazil	72¢	74¢	$500	$510	+$10 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 29	$12	−$12	-100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 29	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$17	−$2	-9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$201	+$32	+16%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$5	+$13	+248%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$6	−$1	-12%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Jun 25	$6	$0	-5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	55¢	$16	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Brazil	72¢	$504	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$201	2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$51	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	59¢	$17	2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$5	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	46¢	$5	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$6	4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	SELL Yes	20¢	$6	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	63¢	$12	4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$6	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.42 · official $510.42 (match) · 15 history records