Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x2587…6ae9
crypto · 366 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$690 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$580 · open −$112
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$614
Realized−$580
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses245 / 113
Open positions8
Markets (closed)358 / 366
History coverage69d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 8 History 358 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$169
14 days−$225
30 days−$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 80¢ $166 $161 −$5 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 57¢ $165 $131 −$34 (-21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 50¢ $142 $101 −$41 (-29%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 88¢ 88¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 85¢ $80 $73 −$8 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 22¢ $39 $33 −$6 (-15%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 39¢ 22¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-42%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 41¢ 27¢ $20 $14 −$7 (-34%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $38 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $159 −$68 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $111 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $46 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $97 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $55 −$25 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $270 −$57 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $197 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $150 +$16 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $61 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $107 +$31 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $98 +$20 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $47 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $172 −$100 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $230 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 09 $121 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $73 −$34 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $129 −$44 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $141 −$11 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $265 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $59 −$24 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $143 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 08 $120 −$26 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $88 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $132 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $51 −$46 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $49 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $80 +$30 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $154 +$28 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $148 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $162 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% −$1,198
finance 8% +$333
world 6% +$188
tech 0% +$4
other 0% −$8
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $13 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $63 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 80¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $12 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -4.9% -13.9% 73% 33% -11.7%
≤30d 108 -9.5% -18.1% 69% 34% -15.9%
≤90d 358 -0.6% -10.1% 68% 37% -11.9%
all 358 -0.6% -10.1% 68% 37% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 37% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 12% -20.3%
15% -26.5% 5% -28.0%
20% -33.7% 3% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $614.14 · official $614.17 (match) · 3500 history records