Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:29:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0x2587…5179

finance · 7 markets active 5h ago

2.0score

−$65 -15%

TOTAL PnL · realized −$65 · open +$0

avoidriskycopy

✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Net worth$110

Realized−$65

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage74d

Avg bet$63

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2

7 days+$2

14 days−$27

30 days−$48

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	17¢	$110	$110	−$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$17	$0	−$17 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	Jun 12	$114	+$2	+2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	May 30	$86	−$28	-33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	May 29	$105	−$21	-20%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Apr 13	$17	−$17	-100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	Apr 13	$2	$0	+2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?	Apr 13	$5	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 29% −$18

tech 26% +$2

world 24% −$21

finance 21% −$28

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$113	4h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	SELL Yes	93¢	$116	5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	91¢	$114	13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	SELL Yes	47¢	$58	13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	BUY Yes	68¢	$86	14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	SELL No	56¢	$84	14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	BUY No	70¢	$105	15d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	BUY Yes	49¢	$16	59d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	BUY Yes	49¢	$1	59d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?	BUY No	99¢	$5	73d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	BUY No	98¢	$2	73d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-32.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+1.5%	-8.1%	100%	0%	-8.1%
≤30d	3	-17.2%	-25.0%	33%	0%	-23.7%
≤90d	6	-24.8%	-32.0%	50%	0%	-27.3%
all	6	-24.8%	-32.0%	50%	0%	-27.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.0%	0%	-27.3%
10%	-38.5%	0%	-34.3%
15%	-44.4%	0%	-40.6%
20%	-49.9%	0%	-46.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.68 · official $109.68 (match) · 13 history records