Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x2589…6868 tech 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,254 (+52%) realized −$1,094 · open +$2,348
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +69% what you keep after slip
Net edge+69%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$608per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 100% +$2,624
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+69.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +86.9% +69.1% 100% 100% +69.1%
≤30d 1 +86.9% +69.1% 100% 100% +69.1%
≤90d 1 +86.9% +69.1% 100% 100% +69.1%
all 1 +86.9% +69.1% 100% 100% +69.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.1% 100% +69.1%
10% +52.9% 100% +52.9%
15% +38.1% 100% +38.1%
20% +24.6% 100% +24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +87% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt +87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$276 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$4,401
Realized−$1,094
Unrealized+$2,348
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage68d
Avg bet$608
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 14¢ 47¢ $635 $2,075 +$1,440 (+227%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 22¢ 36¢ $768 $1,255 +$487 (+63%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 28¢ 47¢ $650 $1,071 +$421 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? Jun 20 $317 +$276 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $150 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $284 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $606 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $289 17h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $182 17h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 17h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $17 17h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $37 17h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $23 18h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $4 18h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $7 18h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $3 18h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 18h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 18h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $5 18h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $485 18h
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $90 68d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 68d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $174 68d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 68d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $20 68d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $21 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,400.78 · official $4,400.78 (match) · 25 history records