Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x2589…a169 crypto 247 markets active 14h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$282 (+1%) realized +$282 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate98%241W / 6L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$50
14 days+$90
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$272
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -3.1% -12.3% 96% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 144 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 1% -8.7%
≤90d 247 +1.2% -8.5% 98% 4% -8.5%
all 247 +1.2% -8.5% 98% 4% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 4% -8.5%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.3%
15% -25.2% 1% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×15.85 per $1 lost it wins $15.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$282
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses241 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage68d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $494 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $499 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $194 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $396 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $296 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $400 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $91 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $118 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $300 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 798 history records