Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x258a…2739 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-4%) realized −$112 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$118
14 days−$118
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$33
politics 25% +$44
sports 15% −$37
economics 12% −$5
world 6% −$150
finance 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -40.1% -45.8% 50% 50% -43.7%
≤30d 2 -40.1% -45.8% 50% 50% -43.7%
≤90d 7 -10.1% -18.6% 43% 29% -18.3%
all 26 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 8% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 8% -14.7%
10% -20.5% 4% -22.8%
15% -28.2% 0% -30.3%
20% -35.2% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$23 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage186d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $181 $181 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 75¢ 78¢ $75 $78 +$3 (+4%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $72 $74 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $162 +$32 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $150 −$150 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 19 $138 −$2 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 19 $156 $0 +0%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $240 −$8 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 08 $235 −$40 -17%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t May 08 $152 +$48 +32%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $38 +$3 +8%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 22 $35 −$5 -14%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this we Jan 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the top global Netflix show this we Jan 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will "Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable" be the top global Netflix show Jan 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 16 $165 +$1 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Bier be the next CEO of X? Jan 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Grok be the next CEO of X? Jan 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Dec 31 $45 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $40 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 31 $60 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will Santa deliver more than 8,400,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Dec 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Santa deliver between 8,000,000,000 and 8,100,000,000 gifts for C Dec 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Santa deliver between 7,900,000,000 and 8,000,000,000 gifts for Dec 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Dec 30 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $182 1h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 85¢ $195 14h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 75¢ $76 18d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 18d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 18d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 18d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 27¢ $30 18d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 18d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 27¢ $31 18d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 70¢ $162 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $150 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 91¢ $136 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $156 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 92¢ $138 43d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $156 44d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $148 44d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $24 44d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $1 44d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $18 44d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $1 44d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $1 44d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $1 44d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $16 44d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 60¢ $83 44d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 76¢ $103 72d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 76¢ $49 72d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 80¢ $112 72d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 76¢ $169 72d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 84¢ $6 92d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 84¢ $178 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.27 · official $332.27 (match) · 147 history records