Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x258c…f0be other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$127 (+5%) realized +$136 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$255
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$204
sports 6% −$50
crypto 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +22.0% +10.4% 71% 64% +7.6%
≤30d 21 +7.6% -2.6% 62% 57% -1.8%
≤90d 21 +7.6% -2.6% 62% 57% -1.8%
all 22 +2.7% -7.1% 59% 55% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 55% -6.7%
10% -16.0% 55% -15.6%
15% -24.1% 55% -23.8%
20% -31.5% 45% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$78 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage118d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $295 +$1 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $100 +$65 +65%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$109 +109%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28? Feb 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 39h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 63¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $295 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 10d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 13d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28? BUY No 49¢ $100 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.22 · official $241.22 (match) · 40 history records