Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

25 0x258e…8e77 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$68 (+25%) realized +$71 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown41%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day8.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+22.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+35.7%	+22.7%	56%	56%	+19.7%
≤30d	9	+35.7%	+22.7%	56%	56%	+19.7%
≤90d	9	+35.7%	+22.7%	56%	56%	+19.7%
all	9	+35.7%	+22.7%	56%	56%	+19.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.7%	56%	+19.7%
10%	+11.0%	56%	+8.3%
15%	+0.3%	56%	-2.2%
20%	-9.6%	44%	-11.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 47% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$58

Realized+$71

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)9 / 14

History coverage2d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day8.4

Drawdown41%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	59¢	56¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-4%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	27¢	26¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	22¢	$6	$7	+$1 (+12%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	32¢	24¢	$9	$7	−$2 (-27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$6	$6	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$58	+$27	+47%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$10	+$30	+289%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$27	−$27	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$29	+$21	+73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$32	+$17	+52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$15	+$25	+164%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$8	$0	-5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$31	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	75¢	$6	4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	72¢	$29	4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$22	10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$20	38h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026?	BUY No	11¢	$5	38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	65¢	$27	40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$18	46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$10	47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	48¢	$9	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$23	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	37¢	$15	2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	32¢	$9	2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	38¢	$8	2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$6	2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$6	2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	38¢	$8	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.74 · official $57.74 (match) · 28 history records