Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x258e…964c other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate23%18W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$21
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$16
other 29% −$6
sports 19% −$1
economics 9% +$1
politics 6% $0
finance 3% +$5
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 26 -1.0% -10.4% 15% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 35 +1.0% -8.6% 20% 3% -9.7%
all 77 -2.1% -11.4% 23% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 1% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.7% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses18 / 59
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage328d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $36 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $74 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $72 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $80 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $146 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $186 −$21 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $149 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $73 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $146 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $95 −$3 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $209 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $198 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $203 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $95 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $254 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $182 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $207 +$5 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $10 +$6 +63%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $91 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $120 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $555 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $611 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 10 $8 $0 +3%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 10 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $37 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $30 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $8 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $67 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $74 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $50 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $72 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $80 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $80 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $73 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $61 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $9 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $11 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $80 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $80 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $64 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $73 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $61 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 314 history records