Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

25 0x258f…fb38 other 7 markets active 3d ago coverage 149d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$34 (-12%) realized +$13 · open −$47

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +139% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +116% what you keep after slip

Net edge+116%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$42per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 149d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+116.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+245.0%	+212.1%	100%	100%	+93.9%
≤30d	3	+177.9%	+151.4%	100%	100%	+64.9%
≤90d	3	+177.9%	+151.4%	100%	100%	+64.9%
all	4	+139.2%	+116.4%	100%	100%	+42.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+116.4%	100%	+42.3%
10%	+95.7%	100%	+28.7%
15%	+76.8%	75%	+16.2%
20%	+59.4%	25%	+4.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +82% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +139% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$3 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage

Net worth$223

Realized+$13

Unrealized−$47

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage149d

Avg bet$42

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	7¢	$150	$103	−$47 (-32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	85¢	86¢	$100	$102	+$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	84¢	80¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1	+$5	+442%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 13	$5	+$2	+44%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio	Jan 22	$8	+$2	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$51	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	67¢	$5	3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	84¢	$10	9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$5	9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	84¢	$10	9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	85¢	$10	149d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio	SELL No	100¢	$10	149d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	85¢	$30	152d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	85¢	$60	152d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio	BUY No	81¢	$8	152d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.40 · official $223.54 (match) · 168 history records