Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2598…9a3d world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$3
sports 24% −$2
other 24% +$3
politics 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.8% -11.2% 33% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 27 -3.3% -12.5% 37% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 35 -5.5% -14.5% 37% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -3.7% -12.9% 34% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 2% -9.5%
10% -21.2% 2% -18.2%
15% -28.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage98d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 58¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $73 −$8 -11%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $11 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $15 −$1 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $112 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $94 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $77 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $87 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $60 +$3 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $13 −$1 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $67 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $31 −$3 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $3 $0 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $72 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $70 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $288 +$3 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $43 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $289 $0 +0%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $605 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 13 $98 $0 +0%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $97 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $35 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $35 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 22h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $36 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $11 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $11 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $12 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $15 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $27 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $6 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $14 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $17 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.22 · official $32.22 (match) · 172 history records